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View Full Version : Zamochit's feeling Bearish



zamochit
10-30-2009, 08:44 PM
Hey Vortech, I thought I would start a thread on the market.



Harvard University professor Martin Feldstein said this in an e-mail to Bloomberg.

“The danger remains of a serious slowdown after this and a possible double dip of the economy in 2010.”
This of course could be a very likely possibility, but I don’t think it would happen fast. It’s going to be a slow and methodical move lower that will PISS a lot of people OFF – except us bears. Anyhow, here is what we are looking for today – a move lower intially to around 1,055 before another launch higher to re-test the highs.

vortech302
10-31-2009, 10:19 PM
So, how do you feel about 6 Nov Puts on Ford? Or, with earnings coming out and November being what it normally is for the market, would you go 7 Nov Calls?

http://www.optionsxpress.com/OXNetTools/Chains/index.aspx?SessionID=&Symbol=OEX&Range=4&lstMarket=0&ChainType=&AdjNonStdOptions=OFF&lstMonths=&FromVB6=True

zamochit
10-31-2009, 11:42 PM
I wouldn't have a stake in the auto industry right now. CFC killed the auto industry for awhile, sales are not good (no matter what CNBC tells you). I'd have to look at the charts and see where I think Ford is heading, but to be honest I am staying away from the auto industry so that I can make some cash today. The auto industry and banks are not in my portfolio right now and I would say to stay away from them for awhile unless you pray and hold long term. I personally don't believe in the buy and hold strategy, reason being if you played the buy and hold game over the last few years you lost your ass.

zamochit
10-31-2009, 11:44 PM
So, how do you feel about 6 Nov Puts on Ford? Or, with earnings coming out and November being what it normally is for the market, would you go 7 Nov Calls?

http://www.optionsxpress.com/OXNetTools/Chains/index.aspx?SessionID=&Symbol=OEX&Range=4&lstMarket=0&ChainType=&AdjNonStdOptions=OFF&lstMonths=&FromVB6=True


My above post is my opinion and not intended to lure you away from your strategy.

vortech302
11-01-2009, 10:13 AM
I'm averaged in at $7.47, and bought to hold long term cause I've been buying and selling when I could've made more profit just holding. I know eventually it'll be above that, so I'm not willing to take a loss now to get out of it. But, I had bought with the intention of holding till it hit 10, but now I'm thinking 8 is more realistic.

zamochit
11-01-2009, 11:30 AM
A downtrend has started and I am loading up with shorts. Its a good time to make up for your losses. I made a good chunk of cash last week with shorts. In fact i made 30% in 3 days.

zamochit
11-01-2009, 11:32 AM
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33565109/ns/business-autos/

did you see this?

vortech302
11-01-2009, 07:04 PM
I read about it in the paper today, I think they'll come to something this week. Everyone says that, "if you don't accept these terms then there's no deal, job losses, pay freezes, etc." With earnings coming out and hopefully some good news about concessions, I'm hoping it gets near 8 and I'll probably get out. I definitely think you're right that next year it'll be better to be short.

zamochit
11-09-2009, 10:13 PM
This morning we see the futures shooting higher (as expected) on the G-20 Summit expectations to stimulate the economy further. Whether its good long term for the dollar (which it’s not) or the economy (which again it’s not), stock futures are shooting higher and up by more than 1% already. Now, I said a week ago to close friends that this would happen and it’s playing out wonderfully for us. This FINAL peak (which should happen later this week) will be the LAST of the rally from the March lows. After that it’s down, down, down.

zamochit
11-10-2009, 11:39 PM
Yet more BS Fedspeak, this time in the mainstream media: (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33826707/ns/business-economy_in_turmoil/)

In separate speeches, Janet Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and Dennis Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, warned that rising unemployment could crimp consumers, restraining the recovery. Consumer spending accounts for about 70 percent of economic activity.
That's because there is no real economic recovery at all.
So why is the stock market up so much?
More than happy to show 'ya.
Two charts should suffice:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/uploads/Nov2009/carry-year.png
That is an overlaid chart (as close as I can easily get them to register) on the dollar and The S&P 500 from the March lows to today.
Notice the near-perfect inverse correlation. The Dollar goes up, the market goes down. The Dollar goes down, the market goes up.
Now today, literally minute-by-minute:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/uploads/Nov2009/carry1.png
Same correlation - near-perfect.
Folks, you don't have to engage in any sort of "conspiratorial" thinking on this whatsoever. You only need examine the facts.
The rally in the market has exactly nothing to do with the economy and the outlook for it. It is tied to one and only one thing - the decline in the dollar.
A WEAKER, EVEN COLLAPSING, DOLLAR IS NOT COMMENSURATE WITH OR INDICATIVE OF A STRONGER ECONOMY.
You're free to believe in any thesis you'd like with regards to economic recovery. But a strong economy is correlated with a stronger currency - that is, the underlying strength of America, along with her ability to support her currency via current and future production, which translates into the ability to raise tax revenues and thus cover debt.
Since March The Federal Reserve and Federal Government have in fact promulgated and prosecuted policies that do the exact opposite. The stock market has responded not to forward economic prospects, as is often claimed, but rather to the "hot money" flows of foreign and domestic speculators and a dollar-based carry trade engendered by The Fed's zero-percent interest rates.
Yes, the stock market could go to all-time highs - for a short while - if this is allowed to continue. But oil (priced in dollars) would be $300 and the dollar would be at 40 - everything you buy that is imported would literally double (or more) in price, and your standard of living, since energy is in everything, would be cut in half - or worse.
How well will the stock market do over the intermediate and longer term when the 70% of the economy that is consumer spending (that's you, dear reader!) is destroyed by ramping import costs - whether the government calls that "inflation" or not?
Japan tried this same game when they got in trouble 20 years ago and they failed to produce lasting economic growth and prosperity. What they did produce was near-exact correlated market rallies and Yen devaluations, but 20 years later, despite huge rallies in the stock market as we have seen in ours, The Nikkei remains some 60% off it's all-time high, with no realistic prospect of reaching that high at any time in the foreseeable future.
The mainstream media will not show you the above charts, as they put the lie to any claim that the market is "foreshadowing" economic recovery in the next six to twelve months.
It is doing no such thing - it is responding to hot money flows that are being intentionally generated and, if you follow them as an investor (rather than as a minute-by-minute trader) you will be crushed, just as those who bet on recovery in Japan following their original collapse were.
Bernanke, Geithner and the other stooges in our government and media are intentionally misleading you.
Again.

vortech302
11-11-2009, 07:26 AM
That chart is pretty crazy. I used to sit and watch the shows and minute to minute they'd go from "Are we in recovery?" to so and so says "Recession until 2012" and the market would fluctuate accordingly. It'd be nice to figure out which way people want the market to move. Was it last week unemployment was the highest it has been in a long time and there was no selloff? You ever use americanbulls.com? They're pretty good at predicting when to buy/sell.

zamochit
11-11-2009, 09:05 PM
I never watch any shows on the market, especially CNBC. The reason being is because if you listened to any one of them as the market was just starting to fall they were all in for buying. So, many people lose much more than they were going to by listening to them.

The media is feeding brains by saying the economy is recovering almost daily, but I don't see it. Unemployment is a lagging indicator, but there still its still worse every month. IF you watch trading volume lately its been very low meaning that its mostly the large firms trading.

Geitner, Bernanke, and Obama's decisions scare the hell out of me. They have done nothing to help, but kill the dollar.

I haven't checked ot americanbulls.com, but will tonight. Don't predict, watch the charts and learn how to use them.

vortech302
11-17-2009, 10:19 AM
Shoulda Woulda Coulda, I wish I would've bought those 8 Nov Calls

zamochit
11-17-2009, 10:00 PM
Only if you planned to sell them short term. I am telling ya the market is gonna choke. Bernanke killed the dollar yesterday. Are you watching the dollar plummet everytime the market does well? How stable is the stock market with a weak dollar? Can you hear the Jaws theme song?

zamochit
11-19-2009, 07:43 PM
Well, like I said last week – the markets are short term over-bought and due for a minor correction. Note the chart below.

vortech302
11-19-2009, 10:48 PM
I sold my stuff pre market, going to sit and watch and pick a spot. And I would've definitely cashed out the options a few days ago, no sense in holding them.

junkyardjon
11-19-2009, 11:06 PM
wtf yall talking about? lol i don't much t.v. at all or read the news. hell i haven't watched the news on t.v. in about 3 years LOL

zamochit
11-19-2009, 11:07 PM
Thats good cuz TV is not where you want to get this info;)